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Saturday, March 29, 2003


Earth-Info.Net feels that anyone trying to understand the present war in Iraq (and world affairs in general!) would benefit from reading a CIA report entitled Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts...

The report outlines 4 alternate scenarios for the future:

* Inclusive Globalization: A virtuous circle develops among technology, economic growth, demographic factors, and effective governance, which enables a majority of the world's people to benefit from globalization.

* Pernicious Globalization: Global elites thrive, but the majority of the world's population fails to benefit from globalization. Population growth and resource scarcities place heavy burdens on many developing countries, and migration becomes a major source of interstate tension

* Regional Competition: Regional identities sharpen in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, driven by growing political resistance in Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance and US-driven globalization and each region's increasing preoccupation with its own economic and political priorities.

* Post-Polar World: US domestic preoccupation increases as the US economy slows, then stagnates. Economic and political tensions with Europe grow, the US-European alliance deteriorates as the United States withdraws its troops, and Europe turns inward, relying on its own regional institutions.


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